Technical Speculator ...your financial market review

January 1, 2023: The January Model Portfolio report has now been posted

The performance results for a very challenging year were lower than we hoped but were still above the benchmark S&P 500 by almost 5%.
The TS Model Growth Portfolio continues to outperform the S&P 500 on a 5-year average, 10-year average, and from 15-years.
In fact, since the start of the model portfolio in mid-2003, the model portfolio is up 784.44% versus the SPX which has advanced 308.01%

As 95% of all managed money can not outperform the S&P 500 over a 5-year period, our model portfolio sits in the top 5%.

We have taken a very conservative approach going into Q1 as our analysis points to lower market levels and a probable recession starting over the next month or two.

Our main concerns rest with the prolonged US inverted yield curve (now at 24 weeks) and the weakening global economy.

In preparation for weaker markets in Q1, we have increased our cash position to about 31% and trimmed all positions.  

In this attached 1st page of the report, we highlighted the four asset classes (bonds, stocks, commodities, and currencies).  Their recent movements are key to our analysis of the markets in 2023.

To read the full report, go to, log-in, and follow the links to the January 2023 Portfolio report.