Breaking News! The US Yield Curve has inverted. The spread between the 10y-2y is at the same level as past recessionsAn inverted yield curve has predicted the last 7 recessions. There is often a lag period of between 6 to 9 months from the time of the inversion to the time a recession starts. The depth and duration of the expected recession is unknown.
The Technical Speculator
- The market research from the Technical Speculator is available in two publications. The first is the monthly newsletter. This online 20-24 page journal will be produced 11 times per year and covers the four markets; currencies, commodities, bonds and equities. This publication offers a broader coverage and is useful to those who require a more professional approach to their investing information. The annual cost is $130.00 plus applicable taxes.
The second report will cover the TS Model Growth Portfolio. This theoretical stock and exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a combination of CDN and USD securities and typically holds 14-16 securities.
The Portfolio utilizes a top-down, relative strength format based on the business cycle. The Portfolio is long-term in its investment approach. Since its inception in mid-2003, the Portfolio has averaged over 10% per year.All performance numbers are based on security returns before dividends. Reinvesting the dividends would add additional 2% to 3% to the total return.
Performance numbers for the Canadian-dollar portfolio have been:
2003 - +23.84%
2004 - +29.19%
2005 - +49.59%
2006 - +28.79%
2007 - (2.81%)
2008 - (20.46%)
2009 - +22.27%
2010 - +3.47%
2011 - (5.64%)
2012 - (0.17%)
2013 - 1.95%
2014 - (2.71%) The CDN and U.S. Portfolios merged into one portfolio
The 11-year average has been 11.82%.
The 11-year average of the S&P/TSX Composite is 9.89%.
Performance numbers for the U.S.-dollar portfolio have been:
2003 - 21.90%
2004 - 20.47%
2005 - 23.32%
2006 - 31.19%
2007 - 16.25%
2008 - (10.97%)
2009 - 37.90%
2010 - (3.46%)
2011 - (20.53%)
2012 - (6.72%)
2013 - 44.29%
2014 - (2.71%) the CDN and U.S. Portfolios merged into one portfolio.
2015 - (2.19%)
2016 - 7.40%
2017 - 12.18%
2018 - (6.57%)
2019 - 26.81%
2020 - 30.39%
2021 - 16.25%
The 19-year average of the TS Model Portfolio has been 12.80%.
The 19-year average of the S&P 500 is 8.37%.
The two portfolios (CDN and USD portfolios) merged together on January 1, 2014. All performance numbers going forward will be on the new merged TS Model Growth Portfolio.
The TS Model Portfolio provides 12 monthly reports per year plus email alerts prior to all changes. Go to the TS Model Growth Portfolio tab on the right-hand side of this page for more information and a sample report. The annual cost is $130.00 plus applicable taxes.
We have also added a new portfolio, as of September 01, 2018, to the existing TS Portfolio report. The TS Model Income Portfolio consists of eight ETFs with an overall dividend yield of over 7.00%.