Technical Speculator ...your financial market review

The May 2023 TS Model Portfolio report has now been posted

Highlights in this month's report are increasing positive signs for the stock market as it moves into mid-year. We look at the positive connection between bonds and stocks and the outlook for US interest rates.

The TS Growth Portfolio has been slowly reducing its cash (money market) position over the last few months.  As evidence continues to point to higher stock market levels in mid-year.  The Portfolio currently holds 8.8% cash compared to over 30% in December.

Markets have largely ignored some of the negative market issues, such as the inverted yield curves (now 39 weeks old), the US regional banking problems, and the ongoing upward path of the Fed's monetary tightening program.

As the markets are a discounting mechanism, we believe that higher market levels are dialed-in.  Our models are suggesting 4,600 for the S&P 500 and 22,500 for the TSX.

We will be fully invested in early May.  

The YTD performance is 2.59% for the TS Growth Portfolio, 8.59% for the S&P 500, 6.35% for the TSX, and 8.24% for the Vanguard Total World Index.